The “Demographic Transition Model” (DTM) or “Demographic cycle” is a model used to represent the process of population transformation of countries from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development process of a country. It is a from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. It is largely based on an interpretation by an American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929.
Demographic Cycle
The transition involves five stages. The original Demographic Transition model had only four stages; however, some theorists consider that of a fifth stage.
First Stage (High Stationary)
It is characterized by both high birth rate and high death rate it is found when the country is economically most backward. So the population remains stationary. India was in this stage till 1920.
Second Stage (Early Expanding)
It begins with the declining of death rate while the birth rate remains unchanged. So this stage experiences the beginning of large increase of population. Because of improvements in food supply and sanitation, our life span increases. These changes have brought due to improvements in basic healthcare, farming techniques, education and access to technology. At present many developing countries of Asia and Africa are in this stage.
Third Stage (Late Expanding)
Death rate declines further and birth rate begins to fall. Yet there is large increase of population since birth exceeds deaths. Due to access to contraceptives, increased wages, urbanisation, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. India appears to be this stage.
Fourth Stage (Low Stationary)
It is characterized with low birth rate and low death rate. So the population becomes stationary. Due to changing lifestyle and stationary working condition, high obesity and many diseases are caused in this stage aging population is predominant. Japan, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland are in this stage
Fifth Stage (Declining)
Population begins to decline as birth rate is lower than death rate. East European countries like Germany and Hungary and north European countries like Sweden, Norway are now in this stage.
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